If Facebook Likes could be directly translated into votes, then Bernie Sanders is currently in the lead in Franklin County by a four point spread. Polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight.com published the results of “The Facebook Primary” last week in the form of an interactive map, which shows the popularity of presidential candidates based solely on social media engagement. Of course, the site is quick to point out that “Facebook likes are not votes” but the information is interesting regardless of prediction accuracy.
Overall, Ben Carson has the widest level of support across the US with 26 percent of overall likes, with Bernie Sanders close behind at 23 percent. Donald Trump is in third, also with 23 percent, while Hillary Clinton sits in fifth place with eight percent and John Kasich brings up the rear with less than one percent.
Of course, any part of the data map can be drilled down to the city, county and zip code levels, so let’s take a closer look at Ohio, Franklin County and Columbus.
At the state level, the numbers shift around a little bit. Carson remains in the lead at 24 percent while Trump jumps up into second place with 22 percent. Sanders slides to third with 17 percent, with leading support only coming from Columbus, Cleveland and Athens. Naturally, Kasich sees more support in his home state with 12 percent, although he doesn’t have a majority from any individual county. Interestingly, if only comparing the two democratic candidates, Sanders dominates Clinton in every county in the state.
At the Franklin County level, Sanders takes the lead with 24 percent of the Facebook popularity vote while Carson slips to second place with 19 percent. Kasich performs in a strong third place with 17 percent of the county’s likes while Trump and Clinton take fourth and fifth places.
It’s little surprise that the city level of support mirrors the county level since Franklin County and the city of Columbus boundaries largely overlap with each other. Sanders leads in Columbus with 23 percent of the virtual vote.
Within the City of Columbus, the support spreads out quickly based upon geography. The Sanders supporters are largely concentrated in the central, northern and eastern neighborhoods, including the University District / Old North (57 percent of the likes), Olde Towne East (49 percent) and the Short North (48 percent). Additional Sanders neighborhoods include Linden, Clintonville, Northland, Eastland and the Hilltop. Trump sees his supporters coming from the Westland area and the Far South Side of Columbus. Carson’s strongest supporters ring the outerbelt in communities adjacent to Hilliard, Grove City, Pataskala, New Albany and Dublin. Lastly, Kasich sees similar outerbelt support, with the strongest to be found on the north side of Columbus, in neighborhoods adjacent to Dublin, Powell, Westerville and New Albany.
To take a look at the data for yourself, visit projects.fivethirtyeight.com/facebook-primary/.