The latest polling data from Quinnipiac released yesterday shows that Hillary Clinton has pulled ahead of Donald Trump in the battleground state of Ohio in a 49-to-45 lead for the presidential election in November. Similar leads have been calculated in other states including Florida and Pennsylvania.
“This Swing State Poll shows a mixed result for the presidential candidates, although certainly with an overall edge for Secretary Hillary Clinton,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “She has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania and the narrowest of edges in Ohio, but Florida, with the largest cache of Electoral College votes is a tie.”
The results from Quinnipiac indicate that negative feelings are driving voters this year, just as much as positive feelings. Clinton’s supporters are split with 42 percent saying their main reason for supporting their candidate is due to pro-Clinton leanings while 41 percent of per supporters are chiefly voting for her because they anti-Trump. Only 29 percent of Trump’s supporters are backing their candidate with a pro-Trump mindset as their leading reason, while 54 percent are primarily anti-Clinton with their support.
Poll analysis site FiveThirtyEight agrees with the assessment, which published an update today titled “Trump Really is Losing Badly” and their current project map indicates that Clinton has a 84.7 percent chance of winning the election in November with a 73 percent likelihood of taking Ohio.
Additionally, many major national media outlets reported last week that a series of campaign missteps led to some of the worst days of Trump’s campaign so far, which has led to his polling numbers dropping drastically as a result. According to nonpartisan polling analysis site Real Clear Politics, all polls conducted since July 29th have shown a lead in Clinton’s favor.
For more information, visit www.qu.edu and projects.fivethirtyeight.com.